Connected outcome across all six pages
Three researched operating models are available on Summary. Australian rates checked 13 October 2026. Base results are conditional on pricing, partner production and committed backing. Founder and operating seed fund the business; backing seed stays in term deposit. Fitout finance is partner funded.
Forecast November 2026–October 2031. Earned operating profit after contingency is the comparison measure, before tax. Annual upfront customer receipts can make cash look stronger than earned profit. All tiers retain modelled claims, insurer charges and investor fees. Fractional expected customers and losses are used, with no fee arrears, tax or interest on founder/equity operating capital. A reserve shortfall increases operating funding needs. Backing release is not modelled; operating equity value and dilution are modelled separately on the Equity tab.
The three reference cases are prefilled planning hypotheses. No actuarial claim study, lender commission agreement, insurer quotation, signed distribution contract or committed investor facility was supplied. Larger-bond competitor pricing is bespoke. Your existing browser inputs are preserved until you select a model. See Summary for public sources, assumptions, individual stress tests and scaling conditions.
Founder-funded launch, separate backing and operating seed, two bond-flow sliders and 15 key controls. Adjust the main drivers here; every result and detailed page updates with you. Your current inputs are already filled in.
MARKET REVIEW · 13 OCTOBER 2026
Compare the complete operating models, then load one to adjust it across all six tabs. Your current saved inputs stay in place until you load a model. Each reference case retains founder pay, staged hires, claims, insurance costs and investor fees. Positive base results do not guarantee profitability.
All three exclude Emerging tenants. Claims remain planning assumptions: 0.75% Prime / 2% Core annual claim probability; 80% severity; 40% / 30% recovery after 12 months. The 4× reserve leverage, 1% commitment fee, 4% utilised-risk premium, 10% fronting and 5% XoL charge need commercial approval. No XoL recoveries are assumed. Primary backing remains 80% term deposit / 20% at call; each plan carries enough cash for the existing $1.5m liquidity stress floor. Backing seed is $0 in the reference cases, avoiding a profit benefit from free backing capital.
Demand stress reduces partner production and paid conversion by 30%; marketing spend is retained. Cost stress raises recurring overheads, salaries, setup, application checks and advertising by 20%, while holding baseline demand constant. Credit stress doubles annual claim probabilities and delays recoveries six months. Funding stress adds two percentage points to primary risk premium and fitout lender buy rate. Scheduled capital remains committed, so idle-capital fees remain payable. The separate one-off claims stress control sizes liquidity only; it is not an extra loss in this P&L.
Public rates checked 13 October 2026. These are comparison points; eligibility, security, fees and products differ. CFB prices, customer volumes, loss rates, investor terms and referral agreements are unquoted planning assumptions.
| Source / product | Observed benchmark | Use in these scenarios |
|---|---|---|
| RBA cash rate | 4.60%, effective 30 September 2026. | Floating reference held flat for planning, not a five-year rate forecast. |
| RBA business lending | August 2026: 7.23% new small-business loans; 7.47% outstanding. | Broad market averages, not an available CFB funding quote or unsecured fitout rate. |
| eGuarantee lease bonds | 5.5% annual fee below $200k; larger bonds assessed individually. Establishment $1,500–$5,500. | Core bond fee 5.5% and establishment $1,500. Prime 4.5% is a proposed larger-bond quote, not a sourced competitor price. |
| CommBank guarantee | Cash-secured ≤$1m: 2.50% p.a. with expiry; 3.00% without. Establishment greater of $250 or 0.25%. Published terms dated 10 June 2025. | 2.5% comparison fee for an expiring guarantee; the tenant must also provide cash security. |
| Shift equipment / fitout | 11.95–16.95% fixed APR; no establishment or annual fee. Eligibility includes two years in business. | Fitout reference APRs 11.95% Prime / 14.95% Core. CFB origination fees make its total cost higher than the same headline APR with no fee. |
| Liberty business loans | Advertised from 8.95% secured; 14.95% without a mortgage. Commercial property from 7.75%. | Security affects price. Tenant cost of capital uses 8.95% as an editable comparison assumption, not a universal saving. |
| Moula unsecured business | 15.99–35.99% APR; 2% origination for direct customers. Fee statement allows up to 4%. | Unsecured SME context, not a justification to charge a Prime borrower the top rate. |
| Metrics Direct Income Fund | Target investor return cash rate +3.25%, currently 7.85% net of fees; not guaranteed. | Investor alternative only. A fund target return is not CFB's borrowing rate. No CFB warehouse commitment was verified. |
| CommBank term deposits | Normal 12-month rate 4.90% as at 18 September 2026. The 5.30% promotion excludes business customers. Early withdrawal normally requires 31 days' notice and adjustments. | 4.9% TD comparator; 4.5% blended investor bank yield is an assumption pending quotes. No deposit interest is business revenue; locked deposits are not normal at-call cash. |
Model 3 earns negotiated origination fees (1.5% Prime / 2% Core) and annual trail (0.5% / 0.75%) on amortising balances, with a 5% income clawback provision. A separate lender advances principal and takes funding and borrower credit risk. These commissions require a written lender agreement; advertised borrower APR does not establish CFB's entitlement to commission.
Owning the loans is a different business. Illustratively, a 14.95% borrower yield less 8.5% funding, 3% net credit loss and 1% servicing leaves 2.45% before overhead and tax. A $500k annual overhead would then need about $20.4m of average loan balances just to break even. Those funding, loss and servicing rates are sensitivity assumptions, not quoted terms. Loan principal, warehouse costs, defaults and regulatory structure would require a separate funded-lender forecast; they are not hidden inside these three cases.
Lean Core targets established tenants through commercial agents and accountants. Prime channel targets larger, stronger tenants through landlord and property-manager relationships. Partner fitout adds an optional lending referral once the bond channel works. No measured conversion funnel, signed distribution agreement or committed demand was available; partner growth and production are targets to validate in the pilot.
Keep the first stage founder led. Add staff only after signed backing supports issuance, customer economics meet the tested price, and observed claims and workload justify growth. Underwrite tenants individually; the planning tier labels are not external credit ratings. Each model's first two years make earned losses. Taxes, dividends, founder loan repayment and valuation/dilution are outside the forecast.
Backing for the full bond demand forecast, before the current reserve plan limits issuance. Net of seed investment for backing; separate from founder and seed operating capital.
Required capital is the highest of: committed bond exposure divided by leverage and the issuance limit; the largest live bond divided by leverage and the single-bond cap; and the at-call stress floor. The stress floor is the greater of the one-off demand stress and 12 times the current monthly claim cash cost multiplied by the claims stress multiple. Recoveries are not deducted from that liquidity floor. These are planning sensitivities, not insurer or bank requirements.
The selected term deposit / at-call target is applied to required backing. At-call cash increases above the target if needed to meet the stress floor; term deposits are the remainder. Annual columns show each year's peak capital requirement and highest liquidity floor, rather than year-end balances. Seed backing is 100% term deposit, excluded from normal at-call liquidity and operating cash. It may only be called for bond-default claims. The primary investor covers the remaining at-call stress requirement. Claims are allocated proportionally across funded backing balances; associated recoveries and replenishment restore the deposit. Term-deposit interest is not CFB revenue, and no early-break fee or release delay is modelled. A separate unconstrained demand calculation sizes requirements; it does not inject this capital into the operating forecast.
Change the at-call allocation and reserve terms → · Change claims stress assumptions →
Five model years · AUD · earned profit after contingency, before tax
The main totals, with a direct route to the supporting model.
Editable planning assumptions. Funding is modelled, not committed. Detailed recommendations and model limits are on the Costs page.
A six-year valuation of the active operating scenario using discounted cash flow (DCF). Adjust startup risk, investment and sale assumptions here. Revenue, costs, claims, reserves and staffing come from the shared model.
Nominal AUD at each future date, not all discounted back to today. DCF excludes capital raised and all ring-fenced backing. Terminal assumptions materially affect value.
Each year's planned or automatic round arrives at the start of that year. Seed operating uses its existing arrival month and separate pre-money assumption. Raising cash does not increase operating profit.
Automatic funding covers the year's projected cash low point plus unearned customer fees and the operating buffer. Turn it off to see unfunded gaps. All proceeds are hypothetical until committed. Raise fees reduce business cash; the cap table uses gross subscriptions. Founder top-ups through the existing founder window also cover these working-capital holdbacks and do not issue shares to outsiders.
Illustrative ordinary-share, fully diluted ownership. Proceeds are after the modelled sale costs and debt, before each shareholder's tax. Founder proceeds cover all founders collectively.
No liquidation preferences, SAFE conversions, options, anti-dilution, earn-outs or shareholder tax are assumed. Existing other holders are the balance of the opening cap table. Backing seed and primary backing buy no operating-company equity in this illustration.
Current valuation and ownership assumptions are applied to each reference operating model; each reference keeps its own seed amount and arrival month. Your active custom scenario remains shown above.
Meaning of DCF: discounted cash flow values future business cash at a risk-adjusted rate; it is not asset depreciation or the RBA cash rate. The initial 25% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth and 5× profit comparison multiple are editable startup planning assumptions, not sourced transaction multiples or a valuation offer.
Operating cash: monthly operating cash after contingency already includes claims, reserve replenishment, insurer and primary-investor fees. The valuation overlay deducts tax and additional reinvestment. It then deducts increases in a conservative cash holdback: cumulative unearned customer fees (cash revenue less earned revenue) plus the selected operating buffer. This is a planning holdback, not a claimed statutory reserve. The same balance is excluded once from cash added to equity value. Actual operating cash and the separate holdback are shown in the bridge. For transparency, tax is an editable percentage of positive annual EBITDA, with no loss relief, depreciation adjustments or tax credits; it is a simplified allowance, not a tax return. Reinvestment is additional to operating costs already in the model. These valuation adjustments and round fees are shown here separately from the original five-year, pre-tax operating cash forecast.
Enterprise value: at each year end, discount only the remaining future monthly free cash flows through month 72, then add the discounted terminal value. The completed year's cash is not counted twice. Terminal value uses normalised Year 6 earned profit after contingency, tax and reinvestment, grown by the terminal rate, less growth in the operating buffer, divided by discount rate minus growth. Normalised earnings already exclude growth in deferred fees, so deferred-fee growth is not deducted again. Negative terminal cash is floored at zero. Normalisation excludes the uplift from annual upfront billing. Negative normalised terminal cash creates no positive terminal value. Year 6 DCF value is the terminal value alone.
Equity and sale: operating equity value = enterprise value + operating cash − cash holdbacks − corporate debt, floored at zero for ordinary shares. Net sale proceeds also deduct sale costs from positive enterprise value. The going-concern sale assumes the backing facilities continue or are replaced. Restricted deposits and matching backing obligations are excluded together; there is no reserve liquidation windfall. No operating debt interest or new borrowing is modelled; the debt control is an existing liability deducted at exit.
Capital rounds: seed pre-money is a negotiated assumption. Later rounds use the forward DCF equity estimate immediately before the round, less the negotiation discount, unless a year's pre-money override is entered. New ownership = gross investment ÷ (pre-money + gross investment). All existing groups dilute proportionally. With no positive price, funding need remains visible and ownership becomes “unpriced”; the model never invents a positive valuation floor. Automatic rounds are assumed at the start of a year and take account of seed timing later in that year.
Startup uncertainty: the DCF is conditional on the operating scenario and continuing backing. Failure probabilities are not separately modelled. Changing the discount rate alone cannot validate market demand, lender terms or credit outcomes. The ±5 percentage-point discount sensitivity is a valuation range, not a confidence interval.
Method references: Damodaran, cash flow and discount-rate matching; terminal value approaches; young-company valuation and survival. The ATO company tax rates distinguish 25% for eligible base-rate entities and 30% otherwise; 30% here is a conservative editable allowance, not a determination of CFB's eligibility. References reviewed 13 October 2026.
Google Ads, Meta Lead Ads, Meta traffic ads and channel partners generate the bonds. Shape the budget curve and set the average bond length here. Tier pricing lives on the Pricing page, and overheads and funding on Costs. Every page reads the same scenario. Issued volume is constrained by reserve and single-bond limits.
Paid media and partner referrals, against the 5-Year Model's fixed volume plan
Every other input held, average bond length moved from 2 to 10 years
The whole budget curve scaled from a quarter to three times its current level
Five years. Paid bonds are attributed to channels by share of applications.
Spend, funnel volumes and acquisition cost each year
All 60 months. Copy it into Sheets or Excel.
Tier fees, bond sums, claims, the reserve structure and Fitout Finance terms, from the Pricing and Income Model. Each tier is tested against a price floor that carries its share of overheads, and against what the tenant would pay for a bank guarantee. Volumes come from the Marketing page.
A bank guarantee costs its fee plus the cost of cash locked away. CFB includes the establishment fee spread over the bond life.
All three tier fees moved together, demand held. Capacity may change issuance; price elasticity is not modelled.
Annual saving against a bank guarantee as the RBA cash rate moves. Bond fees are fixed, so cuts narrow the saving.
Partner-funded. CFB earns the origination fee and a trail margin on the outstanding balance.
The sales case, per average tenant in each tier
How RBA moves flow through investor, tenant and fitout pricing. Reserve cost to CFB is spread-based, so it does not move.
Live fees by tier. Fees in italics are from the Pricing model and not yet modelled as income.
Monthly · AUD · changes are shared across all six pages
Monthly · AUD · changes are shared across all six pages